I've been lurking for the past few weeks and decided to post my plays this week. I've done well so far this year, but am very green when it comes to betting, so that this with a grain of salt. FYI, the lines are the ones I bet at Bowmans.
HOUSTON +9.5 @ Indianapolis
Too many points to spot with Colts poor defence, plus Indy coming off MNF and Houston off embarassing loss to Denver.
CHICAGO +6 @ Tennessee
McNair is out, and nobody has scored more than 20 points against the Bears.
DETRIOT +3.5 @ Jacksonville
Home favs who lost their game before the bye, perform poorly coming off the bye. Detriot has a huge turnover advantage.
ARIZONA +3 vs NY Giants
Cardinals got first road win in ages last week and have played well at home this year (losing to New England). Giants without key defensive personnel and Warner starting to fade again.
CAROLINA +1 @ San Francisco
49ers are 1-6 ATS last 3 years (wk 10 - 13). Panthers covered 3-1 ATS as Dog and as Away this year. Dog is 7-1 in Carolina games this year, 14-3 last 17 dating to late last year.
SEATTLE -2 @ St Louis
Revenge factor for the Seahawks. Perform better than Rams in TO margin, total yards (net), rush yards (net), and first downs (net).
TAMPA BAY +4 @ Atlanta
Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS and SU vs Atlanta in last 3 years. Atlants is 1-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 last 3 years, and
1-7 ATS in home games when playing with 2 weeks + rest since 1992. Home favs off the bye perform poorly coming off the bye.
CLEVELAND +4.5 @ Pittsburgh
This play is heavily dependent on trends/angles, including Play against 7- @F off HDW, opp. off @D L/L. 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS last 9 years. Plus, Cleveland has covered all 4 at home this years and is 4-2 ATS versus PITT last 3 years.
HOUSTON +9.5 @ Indianapolis
Too many points to spot with Colts poor defence, plus Indy coming off MNF and Houston off embarassing loss to Denver.
CHICAGO +6 @ Tennessee
McNair is out, and nobody has scored more than 20 points against the Bears.
DETRIOT +3.5 @ Jacksonville
Home favs who lost their game before the bye, perform poorly coming off the bye. Detriot has a huge turnover advantage.
ARIZONA +3 vs NY Giants
Cardinals got first road win in ages last week and have played well at home this year (losing to New England). Giants without key defensive personnel and Warner starting to fade again.
CAROLINA +1 @ San Francisco
49ers are 1-6 ATS last 3 years (wk 10 - 13). Panthers covered 3-1 ATS as Dog and as Away this year. Dog is 7-1 in Carolina games this year, 14-3 last 17 dating to late last year.
SEATTLE -2 @ St Louis
Revenge factor for the Seahawks. Perform better than Rams in TO margin, total yards (net), rush yards (net), and first downs (net).
TAMPA BAY +4 @ Atlanta
Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS and SU vs Atlanta in last 3 years. Atlants is 1-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 last 3 years, and
1-7 ATS in home games when playing with 2 weeks + rest since 1992. Home favs off the bye perform poorly coming off the bye.
CLEVELAND +4.5 @ Pittsburgh
This play is heavily dependent on trends/angles, including Play against 7- @F off HDW, opp. off @D L/L. 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS last 9 years. Plus, Cleveland has covered all 4 at home this years and is 4-2 ATS versus PITT last 3 years.
